Central Banks

Federal Reserve inspired columns and a split reflection in a dark editorial setting

Research

Warsh's 60% Hike Odds: Why Jackson Hole Repaired Fed Credibility Before It Changed Rates

Kevin Warsh lifted September hike odds without offering a rate path. The contrarian trade is a credibility repair, not a policy promise.

An empty traditional Japanese government meeting room at dusk with two wingback chairs facing each other across a polished dark wood table, a single steaming tea cup

Research

Ueda's Silence at the Kantei: Why the Political Variable, Not the Inflation Data, Is the Binding Constraint on June

Markets are pricing 80% odds of a BoJ hike on June 15-16. Ueda's six-word sentence after his Friday meeting with PM Takaichi is what is not in the price.