Investment Research: Private Credit, Macro, AI

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Research

The Yen Broke 160: Why Intervention Cannot Set Its Trend

The yen pierced 160 and recoiled, but intervention can jolt a market without reversing the rate gap driving it.

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Research

CoreWeave's $132.5 Billion Backlog: Why AI Demand Is Not Yet Cash

CoreWeave's $132.5 billion backlog validates demand, but cash conversion and the debt-heavy buildout remain the harder tests.

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Research

The Missing CPI Annual Rate: Why One Hot Month Does Not Set the Fed's Hike Size

October's core CPI met Christopher Waller's 0.3% threshold for weighing 50 basis points, but one report does not settle the Fed's December move.

An empty trading floor at dusk reflects the market split between broad participation and concentrated technology exposure.

Research

The Nasdaq Rose 2.7% as Nvidia Fell: Why Monday's Rally Is Not Proof of Calm

Monday's rebound widened beyond megacap tech, but a higher Nasdaq and falling Nvidia show why one session cannot settle the breadth debate.

Blank lending files and paper in a dark institutional workspace, a visual for private-credit underwriting and refinancing risks.

Research

KBRA's 112-Borrower Monitor: Why a Default Jump Is Not a Loss Rate

KBRA's record 112-borrower monitor reflects rising stress, but its forward-looking design and uneven exposures make the number a warning, not a loss forecast.

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Research

IonQ's $1.3 Billion Security Deal: Why Strategic Fit Is Not Yet Proof of Revenue

IonQ is adding Elisity in a $1.3 billion all-stock deal. The thesis is plausible; shareholders still need proof of customer conversion, not portfolio breadth.

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Research

Hormuz's 12 Incidents: Why Higher Flows Still Don't Mean Safe Passage

Tanker incidents hit a wartime weekly high as Gulf exports briefly recovered. The divergence points to costly, fragile passage, not a return to normal.

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Research

The 21-Satellite Relay: Why Orbital Scale Is Not the Same as Resilience

SpaceX's 21-satellite military launch proves delivery capacity, not resilience. The strategic and commercial test starts after deployment.

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Research

Singapore's F1 Room-Rate Surge: Why Prices Are No Proof of a Record Weekend

Singapore's F1 room rates are soaring, but booking pace trails 2025. The real test is whether scarcity pricing becomes broader, incremental value.

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Research

Cash App's $15 Million Payout: Why the FTC's 1,500 Complaints Matter More to Block

Cash App's $15 million payments are the hook; the FTC's push for records after 1,500 complaints may matter more for Block's model.

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Research

India's First Hike Since 2023: Why the RBI's Hawkish Pivot Still Leaves a Pause Ahead

The RBI's first hike since 2023 takes cuts off the table, but calibrated tightening leaves a pause open as inflation and growth diverge.

A brass balance scale carrying dark loan folders in front of a city skyline, illustrating private-credit collateral marks.

Research

Four Banks Under Review: Why Private-Credit Collateral, Not Bank Losses, Is the First Signal

The New York Fed's review is not evidence of bank losses. Its real signal is that private-credit collateral marks could squeeze borrowing capacity before defaults appear.