Investment Research: Private Credit, Macro, AI

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Research

Private Credit's Normalization: Why the Cycle Turn Is About Who Owns the Franchise, Not Whether It Survives

The FSB, Bloomberg and the WSJ wrote the same private credit story in ten days. Rowan and Breeden named the same three risks 24 hours apart.

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Research

The Hyperscaler Bet That Answered the Bears: Why Cisco's Enterprise AI Pipeline Matters More Than the $9 Billion Number

Cisco's Q3 lifted FY26 hyperscaler AI orders to $9B. The number that resets the trade is the $900M enterprise pipeline growing triple-digits.

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Research

April CPI's Hidden Question: Can a New Fed Chair Hold the Line on a 3.8% Print?

Headline CPI hit a three-year high at 3.8%. Core decelerated to 2.8%. The market read the print and re-priced 2026 cuts to near-zero. The harder question is what the Warsh transition does in the first ninety days.

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Research

The GLP-1 Bridge Nobody Wanted to Underwrite: Why Medicare's $50 Copay Is a Fiscal Event, Not a Pharma One

Medicare will cover GLP-1s for obesity from July 1. Private insurers refused the BALANCE risk and CMS took it on alone. The biotechs got the easy read. The fiscal arithmetic is the harder one.

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Research

Abel's First Print: Why Berkshire's Buyback Says More Than Its AI Restraint

Q1 operating earnings up 18%. Cash at a record $397 billion. The first buyback in two years. The post-Buffett discount is real and, on the May data, mispriced.

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Research

The WNBA's Billion-Dollar Bargain: Why Valuations Made the Players' Case for Them

Sportico values WNBA franchises at an average $427 million, up 59%. The league lost $40 million last year. Players take 9.3% of revenue. The next CBA will decide which number wins.

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Research

The Stablecoin Schism: Why Lagarde's Refusal Matters More Than Bessent's Forecast

Stablecoins hit a record $321bn in April. On the same day, Lagarde rejected euro versions and Bailey promised a wrestle with Washington. The transatlantic split is the trade.

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Research

Hong Kong's Comeback Quarter: Why the Mix Matters More Than the Number

HK$110bn raised in Q1 — six times last year. The consensus reads it as A+H momentum. We argue the change in mix, not the headline, is the durable story.

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Research

The Words That Survived: Treasury's Quiet Duration Decision

Treasury kept 'at least' in its forward guidance and bill issuance as the load-bearing tool. Q2 needs lifted to $189bn, Q3 to $671bn. We see a stealth duration

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Research

Tokyo's Bridge Finance: Why This Yen Intervention Is Not 2024

The April 30 yen intervention is being read as a defensive stopgap. We disagree. With three BoJ dissenters and OIS pricing a 40% June hike, this is bridging fin

Public market volatility diverging from steady underlying credit fundamentals

Research

Private Credit's Bifurcation: Liquidity Panic, Not a Credit Crisis

Public BDCs are pricing in 10%+ default rates while realized losses sit at 0.7%. The retail wrapper is breaking, the underlying loan book is not. We see a generational entry point for selective BDC equity and a structural opening for institutional capital.

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Research

AI Data Center Power

John Ian Lau — Technology & AI infrastructure desk EXECUTIVE SUMMARY AI data centers are driving unprecedented power demand, projected to consume 6.7-12.0% of U.S. electricity by 2028, up from 4.4% in 2023, necessitating $7 trillion in global capital investment through 2030. Grid constraints have emerged as