Private Credit's Normalization: Why the Cycle Turn Is About Who Owns the Franchise, Not Whether It Survives
The FSB, Bloomberg and the WSJ wrote the same private credit story in ten days. Rowan and Breeden named the same three risks 24 hours apart.
Latest
The Hyperscaler Bet That Answered the Bears: Why Cisco's Enterprise AI Pipeline Matters More Than the $9 Billion Number
Cisco's Q3 lifted FY26 hyperscaler AI orders to $9B. The number that resets the trade is the $900M enterprise pipeline growing triple-digits.
April CPI's Hidden Question: Can a New Fed Chair Hold the Line on a 3.8% Print?
Headline CPI hit a three-year high at 3.8%. Core decelerated to 2.8%. The market read the print and re-priced 2026 cuts to near-zero. The harder question is what the Warsh transition does in the first ninety days.
The GLP-1 Bridge Nobody Wanted to Underwrite: Why Medicare's $50 Copay Is a Fiscal Event, Not a Pharma One
Medicare will cover GLP-1s for obesity from July 1. Private insurers refused the BALANCE risk and CMS took it on alone. The biotechs got the easy read. The fiscal arithmetic is the harder one.
Abel's First Print: Why Berkshire's Buyback Says More Than Its AI Restraint
Q1 operating earnings up 18%. Cash at a record $397 billion. The first buyback in two years. The post-Buffett discount is real and, on the May data, mispriced.
The WNBA's Billion-Dollar Bargain: Why Valuations Made the Players' Case for Them
Sportico values WNBA franchises at an average $427 million, up 59%. The league lost $40 million last year. Players take 9.3% of revenue. The next CBA will decide which number wins.
The Stablecoin Schism: Why Lagarde's Refusal Matters More Than Bessent's Forecast
Stablecoins hit a record $321bn in April. On the same day, Lagarde rejected euro versions and Bailey promised a wrestle with Washington. The transatlantic split is the trade.
Hong Kong's Comeback Quarter: Why the Mix Matters More Than the Number
HK$110bn raised in Q1 — six times last year. The consensus reads it as A+H momentum. We argue the change in mix, not the headline, is the durable story.
The Words That Survived: Treasury's Quiet Duration Decision
Treasury kept 'at least' in its forward guidance and bill issuance as the load-bearing tool. Q2 needs lifted to $189bn, Q3 to $671bn. We see a stealth duration
Tokyo's Bridge Finance: Why This Yen Intervention Is Not 2024
The April 30 yen intervention is being read as a defensive stopgap. We disagree. With three BoJ dissenters and OIS pricing a 40% June hike, this is bridging fin
Meeting the Spirit of Sport on the Pickleball Court
A Hong Kong school principal on how a signed pickleball paddle, a tape-marked playground court, and an inclusive game became a quiet lesson in perseverance.
Private Credit's Bifurcation: Liquidity Panic, Not a Credit Crisis
Public BDCs are pricing in 10%+ default rates while realized losses sit at 0.7%. The retail wrapper is breaking, the underlying loan book is not. We see a generational entry point for selective BDC equity and a structural opening for institutional capital.
Research
AI Data Center Power
John Ian Lau — Technology & AI infrastructure desk EXECUTIVE SUMMARY AI data centers are driving unprecedented power demand, projected to consume 6.7-12.0% of U.S. electricity by 2028, up from 4.4% in 2023, necessitating $7 trillion in global capital investment through 2030. Grid constraints have emerged as
Research
AI Capex Credit Funding
John Ian Lau — Technology & AI infrastructure desk EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Hyperscaler artificial intelligence capital expenditure has fundamentally shifted from self-funded expansion to sustained reliance on debt markets, marking a structural transformation in corporate financing architecture. With aggregate capex for the "big five" exceeding $600 billion in 2026—a
Research
Generative AI Remains the Largest Theme
John Ian Lau — Technology & AI infrastructure desk EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Generative AI remains the preeminent investment theme of 2026, commanding significant capital allocation and reshaping enterprise technology spend. The global market is valued at $55.51 billion in 2026 and is projected to expand at a compound annual growth rate
Research
AI Infrastructure Boom
John Ian Lau — Technology & AI infrastructure desk EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The AI infrastructure market is experiencing explosive growth, valued at approximately $72-102 billion in 2025-2026 and projected to surpass $200 billion by 2030-2031, driven by surging demand for compute, storage, and networking to support generative AI and machine learning workloads.
Research
AI Private Credit Risks
John Grey — Technology & AI infrastructure desk EXECUTIVE SUMMARY AI-driven disruption poses material risks to private credit portfolios, particularly those with heavy exposure to software companies, which comprise ~21% of the asset class and up to 40% including broader tech services. While defaults remain historically low, mispriced pre-2024 loans and
Private Credit
Asia Private Credit Expansion: The $1 Trillion Shift
Asia Pacific private credit AUM crossed billion in Q1 2026, up 28% YoY. JPMorgan forecasts doubling to trillion by 2028.
Sleep, Exercise, Diet + 10 Years: The SPAN Study's Investment Implications
John Grey — Healthcare & longevity desk University of Sydney's landmark 60,000-participant study confirms what insurers have suspected: behavioral interventions add nearly a decade to healthspan. For asset managers, the implication is clear: healthcare costs are not deterministic. Preventative protocols reduce claims by 15-25% in self-insured pools. The
The NAD+ Economy: Inside the Race to Commercialize Cellular Longevity
John Grey — Healthcare & longevity desk Beta-nicotinamide mononucleotide (β-NMN) is having its moment. Three major trials in 2026 will determine whether this molecule moves from supplement shelf to clinical mainstream. BlackRock's thematic research flags longevity as one of 5 secular trends reshaping healthcare. The addressable market: $800B by
Longevity as an Asset Class: The $800B Opportunity
John Grey — Healthcare & longevity desk As global life expectancy gaps narrow and bio-tech advances accelerate, longevity is transforming from a lifestyle trend into a legitimate asset class. VCs are placing billion-dollar bets. ARCH Venture Partners, Andreessen Horowitz and Google's AI fund are circling the NAD+ and senolytic
Global Macro
The Iran War and Markets: Finding the Off-Ramp
Brent hit $141. S&P 500 had its worst quarter since 2022. The Fed is paralysed. Markets are now rallying on Trump's claim the war is almost over. Here is the risk framework — and what investors should do before they act on the optimism.
Research
Asia Pacific IPO Boom 2026: The $334 Billion ECM Story
Asia Pacific raised a record $334 billion in equity capital in 2025 — over a third of global volumes. Hong Kong tripled deal flow. India delivered its best year ever. Here is the institutional case for the 2026 pipeline.
Global Macro
Champagne's Fizz: A Leading Indicator for Financial Markets
Global Champagne shipments have hit a 20-year low — three consecutive years of decline. For institutional investors, the fizz in Champagne is one of the most reliable behavioural indicators of what comes next in markets.