Research
Private Credit's Record Inflows: Why the Stress Is Splitting the Market, Not Breaking It
Private credit is raising record capital as defaults, PIK loans and redemptions rise. The signal is bifurcation, not a systemic break.
Credit
Research
The Three-to-One Exit: Why Bank Refinancing, Not Redemptions, Is Repricing Private Credit
Private credit's real stress test is moving from fund gates to borrower exits as cheaper syndicated loans pull the strongest credits back toward banks.
Research
The $570 Billion Footnote: Why AI's Real Story This Year Is in the Bond Market, Not the Earnings Call
Nvidia just raised $25 billion with $85 billion of orders. Morgan Stanley sees $570 billion of AI-related debt by year-end. The trade is not in the equities the bonds finance — it is in the spreads the bonds are setting.
Research
The Three Bells of June 3: Why Private Credit's Reckoning Has Stopped Being Theoretical
BCRED's first-ever gate, Holly Kim's $500B pipeline and SDNY's valuation probe all landed on the same day. The disagreement is over.
Research
Three Indices, One Asset Class: Why Private Credit's Default Rate Disagreement Is the Real Stress Signal
Proskauer 2.73%. Fitch 6.0%. KBRA 3.1%. The conversation about private credit defaults is asking the wrong question — and the divergence itself is the most info
Research
Private Credit's Normalization: Why the Cycle Turn Is About Who Owns the Franchise, Not Whether It Survives
The FSB, Bloomberg and the WSJ wrote the same private credit story in ten days. Rowan and Breeden named the same three risks 24 hours apart.