Macro
The Repricing the Fed Didn't Get: Why a Three-Year-High PCE Print Pulled Hike Odds Down, Not Up
May PCE breached 4% for the first time in three years. The Fed's own dot plot expects hikes. Yet the 2-year Treasury yield fell on the print, July hike odds collapsed, and the rates market said the opposite of what the data said. The trade is in the divergence.