Federal Reserve - Solomon Grey Capital

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Federal Reserve

The Dissent Warsh Won't Manage: Lorie Logan Just Reset the July FOMC From a Hold Into a Two-Sided Volatility Event

Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan on Thursday became the first FOMC voter to call publicly for a rate hike since Kevin Warsh took over the Fed chairmanship in May. The market read that as a fringe hawkish speech at the end of a slow week. It is not. It is the first live dissent facing a Fed chai

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Research

Warsh's One Proposal: Why the FOMC Just Retired the Powell Playbook in 130 Words

John Grey — Macro & cross-asset desk The Federal Reserve held its target range at 3.50 to 3.75 percent for the fourth consecutive meeting on Wednesday. The unanimous 12-0 vote was the headline. It was also the least important thing that happened in Washington this week. The

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Research

The 8-4 Vote: Why the Fed's Deepest Split Since 1992 Is a Communication Crisis, Not a Policy One

The market read the four April dissents as a hawkish tilt and repriced cuts out. The deeper read is a forward-guidance crisis that lifts the term premium floor.

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Research

April CPI's Hidden Question: Can a New Fed Chair Hold the Line on a 3.8% Print?

Headline CPI hit a three-year high at 3.8%. Core decelerated to 2.8%. The market read the print and re-priced 2026 cuts to near-zero. The harder question is what the Warsh transition does in the first ninety days.