Research
The 5.33% Warning: Why the Treasury Rout Is a Fiscal Repricing, Not a Buyers' Strike
The 30-year Treasury yield has hit a 19-year high, but the signal is not a buyers' strike. It is a higher price for fiscal and duration risk.
Fixed Income
Research
The 3.4% Hold: Why Tame CPI Makes the Fed's September Decision Harder, Not Easier
July CPI eased to 3.4%, but the real market signal is a steeper curve: a Fed hold may delay a hike without delivering duration relief.
Macro
Tokyo's Repricing, Not Doom Loop: Why the 40-Year JGB Auction Told the Real Story
John Grey — Asia markets desk The consensus narrative on Japan last week was doom loop. The yen touched 163.99 against the dollar on Thursday, its weakest print since November 1986. The 10-year Japanese government bond yield closed the week at 2.816 percent, a 17-year high. The
Research
The 8-4 Vote: Why the Fed's Deepest Split Since 1992 Is a Communication Crisis, Not a Policy One
The market read the four April dissents as a hawkish tilt and repriced cuts out. The deeper read is a forward-guidance crisis that lifts the term premium floor.
Research
The Hike That Entered the Conversation: Why 4.56% Tens Are a Regime Signal, Not a Panic
December hike odds doubled to 40% in a week. The story is not transient inflation. It is the duration premium being rebuilt in real time.