Research
Australia's 3.5% Consensus: Why a Softer July CPI Still Won't Deliver an RBA Cut
Australia's July CPI may cool, but the RBA's inflation problem is not solved. Sticky core prices keep patience, not easing, as the real trade.
Inflation
Research
The 3.4% Hold: Why Tame CPI Makes the Fed's September Decision Harder, Not Easier
July CPI eased to 3.4%, but the real market signal is a steeper curve: a Fed hold may delay a hike without delivering duration relief.
Research
April CPI's Hidden Question: Can a New Fed Chair Hold the Line on a 3.8% Print?
Headline CPI hit a three-year high at 3.8%. Core decelerated to 2.8%. The market read the print and re-priced 2026 cuts to near-zero. The harder question is what the Warsh transition does in the first ninety days.