Labor Market

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Research

The 44,000-Hire Warning: Why Friday's Payrolls May Not Bring a Fed Pivot

ADP's 44,000-job print says hiring is cooling, but sticky service costs and low layoffs mean weak payrolls may not deliver the rate relief markets expect.

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Fed

The Payrolls Report Warsh Was Waiting For: Why the 720,000 Labor Force Exit Vindicates the Fed's Data-First Regime, Not the Market's Dovish Repricing

The June jobs report was weak on the headline and dovish on the trade. Underneath, 720,000 people left the labor force in a single month and the participation rate hit a five-year low. That is a supply-side print, not a demand-side one, and it is precisely the data profile Kevin Warsh's new communic