Oil - Solomon Grey Capital

A cinematic dusk aerial view of a dark hulled oil tanker cutting through navy waters with a lone amber beacon glowing on its superstructure and distant vessels silhouetted on the misty hor...

Oil

The Risk Premium Is Back: Why the New Oil Shock Is a Rates Trade, Not an Energy Trade

Brent's 8 percent spike on Wednesday looks like an energy story. It is not. The relevant screen is the oil volatility index, which is now trading three times the S&P equivalent — a duration variable that will feed straight into the term premium and the central bank reaction functions the market spen

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Research

The Risk Premium That Erased Itself: Why Brent at $75 Is Now a Forecaster Problem, Not a Geopolitics Problem

Brent has collapsed from $126 to $75 in six weeks. Macquarie, JP Morgan, Goldman and S&P Global have all cut forecasts in the past 72 hours. The trade is no longer about Hormuz. It is about which forecaster capitulates last.

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Research

The Inventory Crater: Why Even a Signed Iran Deal Won't Reset Oil to Pre-War Levels

Trump announced a draft Iran deal Wednesday. Brent fell 4%. JPMorgan's Kaneva still models $100 Brent through year-end under that exact scenario.

Research

Brent's Worst Month Since 2020: Why the Market Is Pricing the Deal, Not the Supply Gap

Brent posted its largest monthly decline in six years. The sell-off priced a U.S.-Iran agreement that has not been signed and a physical normalization that take