John Grey is a founding editor at Solomon Grey Capital, covering private credit, global macro, and institutional investment strategy across Asia and global markets.
Research
A static analysis of Tariff War 2.0's direct GDP impact on China yields a manageable 0.8-1.2 percentage point drag. The more important question is the second-order effect on Chinese firms' adaptive response — and here, the historical precedent from Tariff War 1.0 is instructive.
News
Asian markets fell sharply on Trump's sweeping tariff announcement. The market is pricing a negotiating tactic. We think it is pricing a structural regime change in US trade policy — and the two scenarios have very different implications for portfolio positioning.