Research
Australia's 3.5% Consensus: Why a Softer July CPI Still Won't Deliver an RBA Cut
Australia's July CPI may cool, but the RBA's inflation problem is not solved. Sticky core prices keep patience, not easing, as the real trade.
Latest
Research
Bitcoin's $80,000 Test: Why ETF Demand Is Reinforcing a Debasement Trade, Not a New Crypto Cycle
Bitcoin's move toward $80,000 is being powered by ETF demand and fiscal-credibility fears. The confirmation test is whether spot demand survives the Treasury catalyst.
Research
Private Credit's Record Inflows: Why the Stress Is Splitting the Market, Not Breaking It
Private credit is raising record capital as defaults, PIK loans and redemptions rise. The signal is bifurcation, not a systemic break.
Research
Hong Kong's $40 Billion IPO Queue: Why the Comeback Is About Capital Supply, Not China Beta
Hong Kong's IPO rebound is real, but it is a capital-supply story before it is a China risk-on signal. The next test is post-listing discipline.
Research
The Falcons' $10.6 Billion Stake: Why Passive NFL Capital Is Pricing the League, Not the Team
Arctos's $10.6 billion Falcons stake is less a bet on Atlanta's roster than a mark on the NFL's controlled ownership system and shared revenue pool.
Research
Moderna's 177% Repricing: Why a Cancer-Vaccine Win Does Not Restore the Old Platform
Moderna's melanoma-vaccine trial is a genuine scientific win, but the 177% stock surge prices in more than one product. The next test is execution.
Research
Walmart's 70% Margin Signal: Why the Consumer Trade Is Becoming an Advertising Business
Walmart's headline comp is cooling, but its high-margin ad business may be the real consumer signal heading into earnings.
Research
The 5.33% Warning: Why the Treasury Rout Is a Fiscal Repricing, Not a Buyers' Strike
The 30-year Treasury yield has hit a 19-year high, but the signal is not a buyers' strike. It is a higher price for fiscal and duration risk.
Sports
Apollo's $750 Million Pickleball Marker: Why the Full-Stack Trade Is Migrating to Asia
SK Lee — Sports & consumer desk Disclosure: Solomon Grey Capital and LIT Sports Global (referenced below) share common ownership through TGG Group. This note discusses that affiliated platform in the context of a broader sector thesis. Readers should weight the analysis accordingly. Valuation ranges cited for LIT TLP are the
Research
The 70% Revenue Dependency: Why AI's Real Risk Is a Two-Customer Price War
AI demand is real, but two private model labs may drive too much cloud growth. The first risk is a price war, not a capex collapse.
Research
The 340 Billion Yuan Repayment: Why China's Credit Slump Is a Demand Signal, Not a Liquidity Crisis
China's record July loan contraction is less a bank-liquidity alarm than a confidence problem that easier money cannot solve on its own.
Research
July's 0.6% Drop: Why a Soft Consumer Is Not Yet a Hard Landing
July's retail-sales drop is a real cooling signal, but fading tax refunds and selective spending make it a rate signal before a recession call.