News
The S&P 500 opened up 1.4%, reached 6,800, and closed down 1.5% at 3,616. An intraday swing of 4.3 percentage points — only the third occurrence since 2000. Goldman Sachs called it a perfect storm. Here is our analysis of what actually happened and what it means.
Research
MicroStrategy's leveraged Bitcoin strategy was celebrated as genius on the way up. The anatomy of its reversal — from premium to negative NAV — is a case study in the mechanics of leveraged single-asset exposure and the risks of corporate treasury strategies that conflate conviction with prudence.
Research
Bingo Group (8220.HK) is a Hong Kong-listed company executing a strategic pivot into AI and gaming. The 30x upside headline reflects a bull case, not a base case. Here is a rigorous analysis of what the thesis requires to be correct.
Research
A static analysis of Tariff War 2.0's direct GDP impact on China yields a manageable 0.8-1.2 percentage point drag. The more important question is the second-order effect on Chinese firms' adaptive response — and here, the historical precedent from Tariff War 1.0 is instructive.
News
Asian markets fell sharply on Trump's sweeping tariff announcement. The market is pricing a negotiating tactic. We think it is pricing a structural regime change in US trade policy — and the two scenarios have very different implications for portfolio positioning.
Research
Quantum Solutions (TSE: 2338) is building an AI services business in Japan at a moment when enterprise AI adoption is accelerating, US-Japan semiconductor alignment is strengthening, and the weak yen creates structural cost advantages. The question is whether the company can execute before bett...