Research
Agentic AI is eliminating entry-level knowledge work systematically. Stanford's Canaries Paper shows 13% employment decline in exposed categories. The structural risk is not job loss alone — it is the destruction of the career ladder that produces future senior professionals.
News
The inaugural LIT TLP tournament in Zhongshan drew 400+ players including world #1 Ryan Lam. What appears to be a sports event is actually the commercial validation of a thesis about China's grassroots sports infrastructure mandate and the private capital opportunity it creates.
News
Trump's nomination of Kevin Warsh to chair the Federal Reserve is the most consequential monetary policy development of 2026. Markets lost $5 trillion in value on the announcement. Here is why the reaction is rational and what it means for portfolio positioning.
Research
The DXY at a four-year low tells a story about structural dollar weakness that gold is reading correctly and Bitcoin is not. The divergence between these two supposed dollar hedges is the most analytically important signal in macro markets right now.
News
The Federal Reserve held rates at 3.5-3.75% after three consecutive cuts, marking the end of the easing cycle that began in September 2025. Two governors dissented for further cuts. Here is the full read-through for fixed income, equities, and the macro outlook.
Research
The binding constraint on AI scaling is no longer capital, compute, or talent. It is megawatts. Microsoft, Google, Amazon, and Meta are power companies that happen to run AI models. The investors who understand this will own the right assets for the next decade.
Research
Z.ai's listing on HKEX as the world's first publicly traded large language model company creates a pricing anchor for the entire Chinese AI sector. The implications extend beyond the stock — this is an event that defines how Asian public markets will value AI.
Research
Our base case for 2026 is constructive equities with five identifiable risks that could derail the thesis. Goldman projects S&P 500 at 7,600; Morgan Stanley is more cautious at 1.8% GDP. We map the risks and the positioning response.
News
Venezuela's 300 billion barrel oil reserve — the largest in the world — is now potentially accessible to Western capital for the first time in two decades. The geopolitical implications for Iran, OPEC discipline, and energy market structure are significant and underappreciated.
News
US special forces captured Nicolás Maduro on January 3rd. The geopolitical shock is clear. The financial implication — Venezuela's estimated 600,000-660,000 Bitcoin shadow reserve — is less understood and potentially more significant for crypto markets.
Research
AI capex consensus among the hyperscalers for 2026 sits at $527 billion, with upside scenarios reaching $700 billion. The question is not whether this capital will be deployed — it will — but which parts of the stack will capture the returns and which will see them competed away.
Research
H1 2025 retail purchases of equities ran 53% above prior year pace. Record bull markets attract capital at the worst possible time. The behavioural finance literature has a clear diagnosis. What it lacks is a practical prescription. Here is ours.