Research
The 70% Revenue Dependency: Why AI's Real Risk Is a Two-Customer Price War
AI demand is real, but two private model labs may drive too much cloud growth. The first risk is a price war, not a capex collapse.
AI Infrastructure
Private Credit
The BlackRock Tell: Why the $12 Billion El Paso Deal Marks the Moment AI Shadow Debt Went Mainstream
BlackRock launched a $12 billion bond deal on Monday to finance a Meta data center in El Paso. It is the second $10-billion-plus off-balance-sheet AI infrastructure vehicle to price inside 30 days, after the Blue Owl-Meta Hyperion structure. The market is trading the deals as validation of the
TSMC
The Capex Hike Is the Story: Why TSMC's $60 Billion Signal Is About Scarcity, Not Boom
Taiwan Semiconductor lifted its 2026 capital budget to $60-64 billion from $52-56 billion, a 15 percent mid-year raise that the market read as an AI demand endorsement. That reading has the causal arrow reversed. The capex hike is a scarcity signal, not a demand signal. When a monopoly foundry
Research
The Hyperscaler Bet That Answered the Bears: Why Cisco's Enterprise AI Pipeline Matters More Than the $9 Billion Number
Cisco's Q3 lifted FY26 hyperscaler AI orders to $9B. The number that resets the trade is the $900M enterprise pipeline growing triple-digits.