Research
The Three Bells of June 3: Why Private Credit's Reckoning Has Stopped Being Theoretical
BCRED's first-ever gate, Holly Kim's $500B pipeline and SDNY's valuation probe all landed on the same day. The disagreement is over.
Macro
Research
The Wallets That Got Grabbed: Why Bitcoin's Break Below $70K Is a Re-categorization, Not a Sell-Off
Treasury just demonstrated it can reach inside Iran's crypto wallets. The June sell-off is not the cycle rolling over. It is bitcoin's macro-hedge identity bein
Research
Brent's Worst Month Since 2020: Why the Market Is Pricing the Deal, Not the Supply Gap
Brent posted its largest monthly decline in six years. The sell-off priced a U.S.-Iran agreement that has not been signed and a physical normalization that take
Research
The Court's Narrow Knife: Why the Section 122 Ruling Is a Tariff Optionality Story, Not a Tariff Removal One
The May 7 trade-court ruling did not lower the effective tariff rate. It removed one statutory instrument from a four-pillar regime that still floors duties in
Research
Three Indices, One Asset Class: Why Private Credit's Default Rate Disagreement Is the Real Stress Signal
Proskauer 2.73%. Fitch 6.0%. KBRA 3.1%. The conversation about private credit defaults is asking the wrong question — and the divergence itself is the most info
Research
The 8-4 Vote: Why the Fed's Deepest Split Since 1992 Is a Communication Crisis, Not a Policy One
The market read the four April dissents as a hawkish tilt and repriced cuts out. The deeper read is a forward-guidance crisis that lifts the term premium floor.
Research
Ueda's Silence at the Kantei: Why the Political Variable, Not the Inflation Data, Is the Binding Constraint on June
Markets are pricing 80% odds of a BoJ hike on June 15-16. Ueda's six-word sentence after his Friday meeting with PM Takaichi is what is not in the price.
Research
Saylor's Concession: Why the Bitcoin Treasury Premium Is Being Repriced as a Closed-End Fund
Saylor said bitcoin might be sold. JPMorgan said the buying could hit $30B. The treasury company complex is being repriced as a financial product.
Research
China's April Reset: Why Beijing Is Defending a Policy Regime, Not a Growth Target
China's April data printed the weakest retail growth since December 2022. The interesting question is which 4.5% target Beijing is willing to miss.
Research
The Hike That Entered the Conversation: Why 4.56% Tens Are a Regime Signal, Not a Panic
December hike odds doubled to 40% in a week. The story is not transient inflation. It is the duration premium being rebuilt in real time.
Research
Private Credit's Normalization: Why the Cycle Turn Is About Who Owns the Franchise, Not Whether It Survives
The FSB, Bloomberg and the WSJ wrote the same private credit story in ten days. Rowan and Breeden named the same three risks 24 hours apart.
Research
April CPI's Hidden Question: Can a New Fed Chair Hold the Line on a 3.8% Print?
Headline CPI hit a three-year high at 3.8%. Core decelerated to 2.8%. The market read the print and re-priced 2026 cuts to near-zero. The harder question is what the Warsh transition does in the first ninety days.