Investment Research: Private Credit, Macro, AI

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Research

Australia's 3.5% Consensus: Why a Softer July CPI Still Won't Deliver an RBA Cut

Australia's July CPI may cool, but the RBA's inflation problem is not solved. Sticky core prices keep patience, not easing, as the real trade.

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Research

Bitcoin's $80,000 Test: Why ETF Demand Is Reinforcing a Debasement Trade, Not a New Crypto Cycle

Bitcoin's move toward $80,000 is being powered by ETF demand and fiscal-credibility fears. The confirmation test is whether spot demand survives the Treasury catalyst.

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Research

Private Credit's Record Inflows: Why the Stress Is Splitting the Market, Not Breaking It

Private credit is raising record capital as defaults, PIK loans and redemptions rise. The signal is bifurcation, not a systemic break.

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Research

Hong Kong's $40 Billion IPO Queue: Why the Comeback Is About Capital Supply, Not China Beta

Hong Kong's IPO rebound is real, but it is a capital-supply story before it is a China risk-on signal. The next test is post-listing discipline.

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Research

The Falcons' $10.6 Billion Stake: Why Passive NFL Capital Is Pricing the League, Not the Team

Arctos's $10.6 billion Falcons stake is less a bet on Atlanta's roster than a mark on the NFL's controlled ownership system and shared revenue pool.

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Research

Moderna's 177% Repricing: Why a Cancer-Vaccine Win Does Not Restore the Old Platform

Moderna's melanoma-vaccine trial is a genuine scientific win, but the 177% stock surge prices in more than one product. The next test is execution.

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Research

Walmart's 70% Margin Signal: Why the Consumer Trade Is Becoming an Advertising Business

Walmart's headline comp is cooling, but its high-margin ad business may be the real consumer signal heading into earnings.

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Research

The 5.33% Warning: Why the Treasury Rout Is a Fiscal Repricing, Not a Buyers' Strike

The 30-year Treasury yield has hit a 19-year high, but the signal is not a buyers' strike. It is a higher price for fiscal and duration risk.

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Research

The 70% Revenue Dependency: Why AI's Real Risk Is a Two-Customer Price War

AI demand is real, but two private model labs may drive too much cloud growth. The first risk is a price war, not a capex collapse.

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Research

The 340 Billion Yuan Repayment: Why China's Credit Slump Is a Demand Signal, Not a Liquidity Crisis

China's record July loan contraction is less a bank-liquidity alarm than a confidence problem that easier money cannot solve on its own.

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Research

July's 0.6% Drop: Why a Soft Consumer Is Not Yet a Hard Landing

July's retail-sales drop is a real cooling signal, but fading tax refunds and selective spending make it a rate signal before a recession call.

Empty basketball arena representing the scarcity premium in sports franchise valuations

Research

The Lakers' 25% Leap: Why Sports Scarcity, Not Earnings, Is Setting the New Asset Floor

The Lakers' record valuation is a repricing of scarce live attention, league-level media rights and the limited supply of franchises.