Investment Research: Private Credit, Macro, AI

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Research

Citi's Six-Stock SMid Biotech Note: Why the Buy-Buy-Buy-Buy-Buy-Neutral Pattern Is the Sector Inflection

Citi initiated coverage on six SMid biotechs last Monday. Five Buys. One Neutral. The pattern, not the targets, is the sector call long-only generalists missed.

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Research

Nvidia's Trillion-Dollar Marker: Why a Clean Q1 Beat Got Sold and What the Bar Has Quietly Become

Nvidia delivered $82B in revenue, +85% YoY, beat the guide, raised the next one, and authorized $80B in buybacks. The stock fell 1.4%. The bar has moved.

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Research

Ueda's Silence at the Kantei: Why the Political Variable, Not the Inflation Data, Is the Binding Constraint on June

Markets are pricing 80% odds of a BoJ hike on June 15-16. Ueda's six-word sentence after his Friday meeting with PM Takaichi is what is not in the price.

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Research

The NHL's Compounding Moment: Why SBJ's League of the Year Vote Maps a Structural Re-Rating, Not a One-Cycle Rally

The Sports Business Journal named the NHL Sports League of the Year for the first time since 2014. The 12-year gap matters more than the award.

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Research

Decker and Ellison's Same Sentence: Why Big-Box Housing Is Structurally Adjusting, Not Cyclically Bottoming

Home Depot and Lowe's both delivered modest comps and reaffirmed guidance this week. The signal is not relief — it is two CEOs describing the same structural ho

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Research

Saylor's Concession: Why the Bitcoin Treasury Premium Is Being Repriced as a Closed-End Fund

Saylor said bitcoin might be sold. JPMorgan said the buying could hit $30B. The treasury company complex is being repriced as a financial product.

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Research

China's April Reset: Why Beijing Is Defending a Policy Regime, Not a Growth Target

China's April data printed the weakest retail growth since December 2022. The interesting question is which 4.5% target Beijing is willing to miss.

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Research

The LIV Postmortem: Why PIF's Exit Vindicates the Disruption Even as It Buries the Disruptor

PIF spent $6B to permanently reshape professional golf. The league dies. The disruption succeeds. Where the money flows next is the trade.

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Research

The Hike That Entered the Conversation: Why 4.56% Tens Are a Regime Signal, Not a Panic

December hike odds doubled to 40% in a week. The story is not transient inflation. It is the duration premium being rebuilt in real time.

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Research

Private Credit's Normalization: Why the Cycle Turn Is About Who Owns the Franchise, Not Whether It Survives

The FSB, Bloomberg and the WSJ wrote the same private credit story in ten days. Rowan and Breeden named the same three risks 24 hours apart.

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Research

The Hyperscaler Bet That Answered the Bears: Why Cisco's Enterprise AI Pipeline Matters More Than the $9 Billion Number

Cisco's Q3 lifted FY26 hyperscaler AI orders to $9B. The number that resets the trade is the $900M enterprise pipeline growing triple-digits.

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Research

April CPI's Hidden Question: Can a New Fed Chair Hold the Line on a 3.8% Print?

Headline CPI hit a three-year high at 3.8%. Core decelerated to 2.8%. The market read the print and re-priced 2026 cuts to near-zero. The harder question is what the Warsh transition does in the first ninety days.