Investment Research: Private Credit, Macro, AI

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Research

The GLP-1 Bridge Nobody Wanted to Underwrite: Why Medicare's $50 Copay Is a Fiscal Event, Not a Pharma One

Medicare will cover GLP-1s for obesity from July 1. Private insurers refused the BALANCE risk and CMS took it on alone. The biotechs got the easy read. The fiscal arithmetic is the harder one.

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Research

Abel's First Print: Why Berkshire's Buyback Says More Than Its AI Restraint

Q1 operating earnings up 18%. Cash at a record $397 billion. The first buyback in two years. The post-Buffett discount is real and, on the May data, mispriced.

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Research

The WNBA's Billion-Dollar Bargain: Why Valuations Made the Players' Case for Them

Sportico values WNBA franchises at an average $427 million, up 59%. The league lost $40 million last year. Players take 9.3% of revenue. The next CBA will decide which number wins.

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Research

The Stablecoin Schism: Why Lagarde's Refusal Matters More Than Bessent's Forecast

Stablecoins hit a record $321bn in April. On the same day, Lagarde rejected euro versions and Bailey promised a wrestle with Washington. The transatlantic split is the trade.

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Research

Hong Kong's Comeback Quarter: Why the Mix Matters More Than the Number

HK$110bn raised in Q1 — six times last year. The consensus reads it as A+H momentum. We argue the change in mix, not the headline, is the durable story.

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Research

The Words That Survived: Treasury's Quiet Duration Decision

Treasury kept 'at least' in its forward guidance and bill issuance as the load-bearing tool. Q2 needs lifted to $189bn, Q3 to $671bn. We see a stealth duration

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Research

Tokyo's Bridge Finance: Why This Yen Intervention Is Not 2024

The April 30 yen intervention is being read as a defensive stopgap. We disagree. With three BoJ dissenters and OIS pricing a 40% June hike, this is bridging fin

Public market volatility diverging from steady underlying credit fundamentals

Research

Private Credit's Bifurcation: Liquidity Panic, Not a Credit Crisis

Public BDCs are pricing in 10%+ default rates while realized losses sit at 0.7%. The retail wrapper is breaking, the underlying loan book is not. We see a generational entry point for selective BDC equity and a structural opening for institutional capital.

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Research

AI Data Center Power

John Ian Lau — Technology & AI infrastructure desk EXECUTIVE SUMMARY AI data centers are driving unprecedented power demand, projected to consume 6.7-12.0% of U.S. electricity by 2028, up from 4.4% in 2023, necessitating $7 trillion in global capital investment through 2030. Grid constraints have emerged

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Research

AI Capex Credit Funding

John Ian Lau — Technology & AI infrastructure desk EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Hyperscaler artificial intelligence capital expenditure has fundamentally shifted from self-funded expansion to sustained reliance on debt markets, marking a structural transformation in corporate financing architecture. With aggregate capex for the "big five" exceeding $600 billion in 2026—

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Research

Generative AI Remains the Largest Theme

John Ian Lau — Technology & AI infrastructure desk EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Generative AI remains the preeminent investment theme of 2026, commanding significant capital allocation and reshaping enterprise technology spend. The global market is valued at $55.51 billion in 2026 and is projected to expand at a compound annual growth rate

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Research

AI Infrastructure Boom

John Ian Lau — Technology & AI infrastructure desk EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The AI infrastructure market is experiencing explosive growth, valued at approximately $72-102 billion in 2025-2026 and projected to surpass $200 billion by 2030-2031, driven by surging demand for compute, storage, and networking to support generative AI and