Investment Research: Private Credit, Macro, AI

Dark data center server rack with glowing blue fiber-optic cables converging into network nodes

Research

The Hyperscaler Bet That Answered the Bears: Why Cisco's Enterprise AI Pipeline Matters More Than the $9 Billion Number

Cisco's Q3 lifted FY26 hyperscaler AI orders to $9B. The number that resets the trade is the $900M enterprise pipeline growing triple-digits.

A wooden gavel on a dark surface with a red ascending line and a blue descending line in the background

Research

April CPI's Hidden Question: Can a New Fed Chair Hold the Line on a 3.8% Print?

Headline CPI hit a three-year high at 3.8%. Core decelerated to 2.8%. The market read the print and re-priced 2026 cuts to near-zero. The harder question is what the Warsh transition does in the first ninety days.

An unmarked amber prescription pill bottle on a polished dark desk with a single warm gold beam of light cutting horizontally across the surface like a balance-sheet line

Research

The GLP-1 Bridge Nobody Wanted to Underwrite: Why Medicare's $50 Copay Is a Fiscal Event, Not a Pharma One

Medicare will cover GLP-1s for obesity from July 1. Private insurers refused the BALANCE risk and CMS took it on alone. The biotechs got the easy read. The fiscal arithmetic is the harder one.

A polished dark wooden chairman's desk with a vintage brass nameplate catching warm gold light, the executive chair pulled slightly away

Research

Abel's First Print: Why Berkshire's Buyback Says More Than Its AI Restraint

Q1 operating earnings up 18%. Cash at a record $397 billion. The first buyback in two years. The post-Buffett discount is real and, on the May data, mispriced.

A basketball on a dark wooden floor bisected by a thin glowing gold line, half lit and half in shadow

Research

The WNBA's Billion-Dollar Bargain: Why Valuations Made the Players' Case for Them

Sportico values WNBA franchises at an average $427 million, up 59%. The league lost $40 million last year. Players take 9.3% of revenue. The next CBA will decide which number wins.

Stylized navy world map with a glowing gold fault line bisecting the Atlantic between North America and Europe

Research

The Stablecoin Schism: Why Lagarde's Refusal Matters More Than Bessent's Forecast

Stablecoins hit a record $321bn in April. On the same day, Lagarde rejected euro versions and Bailey promised a wrestle with Washington. The transatlantic split is the trade.

Hong Kong harbour skyline at dusk in soft fog with warm amber light pulse in the foreground

Research

Hong Kong's Comeback Quarter: Why the Mix Matters More Than the Number

HK$110bn raised in Q1 — six times last year. The consensus reads it as A+H momentum. We argue the change in mix, not the headline, is the durable story.

Neoclassical columns receding into deep shadow with a horizontal beam of cold light and muted gold accent

Research

The Words That Survived: Treasury's Quiet Duration Decision

Treasury kept 'at least' in its forward guidance and bill issuance as the load-bearing tool. Q2 needs lifted to $189bn, Q3 to $671bn. We see a stealth duration

Japanese shoji panels with a sweeping currency-curve light streak and crimson accent

Research

Tokyo's Bridge Finance: Why This Yen Intervention Is Not 2024

The April 30 yen intervention is being read as a defensive stopgap. We disagree. With three BoJ dissenters and OIS pricing a 40% June hike, this is bridging fin

Public market volatility diverging from steady underlying credit fundamentals

Research

Private Credit's Bifurcation: Liquidity Panic, Not a Credit Crisis

Public BDCs are pricing in 10%+ default rates while realized losses sit at 0.7%. The retail wrapper is breaking, the underlying loan book is not. We see a generational entry point for selective BDC equity and a structural opening for institutional capital.

Data center server hall under high-voltage transmission tower at dusk

Research

AI Data Center Power

John Ian Lau — Technology & AI infrastructure desk EXECUTIVE SUMMARY AI data centers are driving unprecedented power demand, projected to consume 6.7-12.0% of U.S. electricity by 2028, up from 4.4% in 2023, necessitating $7 trillion in global capital investment through 2030. Grid constraints have emerged

Stacked steel columns lit by a single beam — capital structure visualization

Research

AI Capex Credit Funding

John Ian Lau — Technology & AI infrastructure desk EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Hyperscaler artificial intelligence capital expenditure has fundamentally shifted from self-funded expansion to sustained reliance on debt markets, marking a structural transformation in corporate financing architecture. With aggregate capex for the "big five" exceeding $600 billion in 2026—