Research
The Yen Broke 160: Why Intervention Cannot Set Its Trend
The yen pierced 160 and recoiled, but intervention can jolt a market without reversing the rate gap driving it.
John Grey
John Grey is a founding editor at Solomon Grey Capital, covering private credit, global macro, and institutional investment strategy across Asia and global markets.
Research
The Missing CPI Annual Rate: Why One Hot Month Does Not Set the Fed's Hike Size
October's core CPI met Christopher Waller's 0.3% threshold for weighing 50 basis points, but one report does not settle the Fed's December move.
Research
The Nasdaq Rose 2.7% as Nvidia Fell: Why Monday's Rally Is Not Proof of Calm
Monday's rebound widened beyond megacap tech, but a higher Nasdaq and falling Nvidia show why one session cannot settle the breadth debate.
Research
KBRA's 112-Borrower Monitor: Why a Default Jump Is Not a Loss Rate
KBRA's record 112-borrower monitor reflects rising stress, but its forward-looking design and uneven exposures make the number a warning, not a loss forecast.
Research
Hormuz's 12 Incidents: Why Higher Flows Still Don't Mean Safe Passage
Tanker incidents hit a wartime weekly high as Gulf exports briefly recovered. The divergence points to costly, fragile passage, not a return to normal.
Research
Cash App's $15 Million Payout: Why the FTC's 1,500 Complaints Matter More to Block
Cash App's $15 million payments are the hook; the FTC's push for records after 1,500 complaints may matter more for Block's model.
Research
India's First Hike Since 2023: Why the RBI's Hawkish Pivot Still Leaves a Pause Ahead
The RBI's first hike since 2023 takes cuts off the table, but calibrated tightening leaves a pause open as inflation and growth diverge.
Research
Four Banks Under Review: Why Private-Credit Collateral, Not Bank Losses, Is the First Signal
The New York Fed's review is not evidence of bank losses. Its real signal is that private-credit collateral marks could squeeze borrowing capacity before defaults appear.
Research
India's 2.75 Million-Ton LPG Pivot: Why Energy Security Is Becoming a US Trade Asset
India's 2.75 million-ton US LPG tender is more than a fuel purchase: it is an attempt to turn supply diversification into bargaining power with Washington and Gulf suppliers.
Research
Washington's $200 Billion Stablecoin Bid: Why Digital Dollars Could Export Treasury Risk, Not Just Demand
Washington is courting overseas stablecoin growth to support the dollar and Treasury demand, but the same reserve link could transmit redemption stress into an already volatile bond market.
Research
France's 105-Basis-Point Warning: Why the OAT Selloff Is a Governance Trade, Not a Debt Crisis
France's bond spread has crossed 100 basis points, but the contrarian risk is fiscal execution and political governance, not an imminent sovereign crisis.
Research
The Yen's 5% Rebound: Why Japan's Real Defense Is a Bond-Market Credibility Test
Japan's joint yen intervention changed the path of prices, not the policy regime. The real test is now in Tokyo's bond market.