Research
China's April Reset: Why Beijing Is Defending a Policy Regime, Not a Growth Target
China's April data printed the weakest retail growth since December 2022. The interesting question is which 4.5% target Beijing is willing to miss.
John Grey
John Grey is a founding editor at Solomon Grey Capital, covering private credit, global macro, and institutional investment strategy across Asia and global markets.
Research
The Hike That Entered the Conversation: Why 4.56% Tens Are a Regime Signal, Not a Panic
December hike odds doubled to 40% in a week. The story is not transient inflation. It is the duration premium being rebuilt in real time.
Research
Private Credit's Normalization: Why the Cycle Turn Is About Who Owns the Franchise, Not Whether It Survives
The FSB, Bloomberg and the WSJ wrote the same private credit story in ten days. Rowan and Breeden named the same three risks 24 hours apart.
Research
April CPI's Hidden Question: Can a New Fed Chair Hold the Line on a 3.8% Print?
Headline CPI hit a three-year high at 3.8%. Core decelerated to 2.8%. The market read the print and re-priced 2026 cuts to near-zero. The harder question is what the Warsh transition does in the first ninety days.
Research
The GLP-1 Bridge Nobody Wanted to Underwrite: Why Medicare's $50 Copay Is a Fiscal Event, Not a Pharma One
Medicare will cover GLP-1s for obesity from July 1. Private insurers refused the BALANCE risk and CMS took it on alone. The biotechs got the easy read. The fiscal arithmetic is the harder one.
Research
Abel's First Print: Why Berkshire's Buyback Says More Than Its AI Restraint
Q1 operating earnings up 18%. Cash at a record $397 billion. The first buyback in two years. The post-Buffett discount is real and, on the May data, mispriced.
Research
The Stablecoin Schism: Why Lagarde's Refusal Matters More Than Bessent's Forecast
Stablecoins hit a record $321bn in April. On the same day, Lagarde rejected euro versions and Bailey promised a wrestle with Washington. The transatlantic split is the trade.
Research
Hong Kong's Comeback Quarter: Why the Mix Matters More Than the Number
HK$110bn raised in Q1 — six times last year. The consensus reads it as A+H momentum. We argue the change in mix, not the headline, is the durable story.
Research
The Words That Survived: Treasury's Quiet Duration Decision
Treasury kept 'at least' in its forward guidance and bill issuance as the load-bearing tool. Q2 needs lifted to $189bn, Q3 to $671bn. We see a stealth duration
Research
Tokyo's Bridge Finance: Why This Yen Intervention Is Not 2024
The April 30 yen intervention is being read as a defensive stopgap. We disagree. With three BoJ dissenters and OIS pricing a 40% June hike, this is bridging fin
Research
Private Credit's Bifurcation: Liquidity Panic, Not a Credit Crisis
Public BDCs are pricing in 10%+ default rates while realized losses sit at 0.7%. The retail wrapper is breaking, the underlying loan book is not. We see a generational entry point for selective BDC equity and a structural opening for institutional capital.
Research
AI Private Credit Risks
John Grey — Technology & AI infrastructure desk EXECUTIVE SUMMARY AI-driven disruption poses material risks to private credit portfolios, particularly those with heavy exposure to software companies, which comprise ~21% of the asset class and up to 40% including broader tech services. While defaults remain historically low, mispriced pre-2024