Macro - Solomon Grey Capital (Page 2)

Research

Brent's Worst Month Since 2020: Why the Market Is Pricing the Deal, Not the Supply Gap

Brent posted its largest monthly decline in six years. The sell-off priced a U.S.-Iran agreement that has not been signed and a physical normalization that take

Research

The Court's Narrow Knife: Why the Section 122 Ruling Is a Tariff Optionality Story, Not a Tariff Removal One

The May 7 trade-court ruling did not lower the effective tariff rate. It removed one statutory instrument from a four-pillar regime that still floors duties in

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Research

Three Indices, One Asset Class: Why Private Credit's Default Rate Disagreement Is the Real Stress Signal

Proskauer 2.73%. Fitch 6.0%. KBRA 3.1%. The conversation about private credit defaults is asking the wrong question — and the divergence itself is the most info

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Research

The 8-4 Vote: Why the Fed's Deepest Split Since 1992 Is a Communication Crisis, Not a Policy One

The market read the four April dissents as a hawkish tilt and repriced cuts out. The deeper read is a forward-guidance crisis that lifts the term premium floor.

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Research

Ueda's Silence at the Kantei: Why the Political Variable, Not the Inflation Data, Is the Binding Constraint on June

Markets are pricing 80% odds of a BoJ hike on June 15-16. Ueda's six-word sentence after his Friday meeting with PM Takaichi is what is not in the price.

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Research

Saylor's Concession: Why the Bitcoin Treasury Premium Is Being Repriced as a Closed-End Fund

Saylor said bitcoin might be sold. JPMorgan said the buying could hit $30B. The treasury company complex is being repriced as a financial product.

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Research

China's April Reset: Why Beijing Is Defending a Policy Regime, Not a Growth Target

China's April data printed the weakest retail growth since December 2022. The interesting question is which 4.5% target Beijing is willing to miss.

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Research

The Hike That Entered the Conversation: Why 4.56% Tens Are a Regime Signal, Not a Panic

December hike odds doubled to 40% in a week. The story is not transient inflation. It is the duration premium being rebuilt in real time.

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Research

Private Credit's Normalization: Why the Cycle Turn Is About Who Owns the Franchise, Not Whether It Survives

The FSB, Bloomberg and the WSJ wrote the same private credit story in ten days. Rowan and Breeden named the same three risks 24 hours apart.

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Research

April CPI's Hidden Question: Can a New Fed Chair Hold the Line on a 3.8% Print?

Headline CPI hit a three-year high at 3.8%. Core decelerated to 2.8%. The market read the print and re-priced 2026 cuts to near-zero. The harder question is what the Warsh transition does in the first ninety days.

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Research

The Stablecoin Schism: Why Lagarde's Refusal Matters More Than Bessent's Forecast

Stablecoins hit a record $321bn in April. On the same day, Lagarde rejected euro versions and Bailey promised a wrestle with Washington. The transatlantic split is the trade.

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Research

The Words That Survived: Treasury's Quiet Duration Decision

Treasury kept 'at least' in its forward guidance and bill issuance as the load-bearing tool. Q2 needs lifted to $189bn, Q3 to $671bn. We see a stealth duration