Investment Research: Private Credit, Macro, AI

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Research

Blackstone's A$36 Billion Warehouse: Why HSBC's Australian Exit Is a Funding Trade, Not a Housing Bet

Blackstone's A$36 billion HSBC loan-book deal looks like a private-credit victory. The real test is the warehouse funding behind it, just as Australia's mortgage cycle cools.

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Research

FIFA's Abrupt Retreat: Why Soccer's Private-Capital Revolt Was a Governance Trade, Not a Funding Problem

FIFA's failed $20 billion private-capital vehicle was not a cash call. It was a governance stress test, and the backlash shows who still controls soccer's most valuable asset.

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Research

The Risk Premium That Erased Itself: Why Brent at $75 Is Now a Forecaster Problem, Not a Geopolitics Problem

Brent has collapsed from $126 to $75 in six weeks. Macquarie, JP Morgan, Goldman and S&P Global have all cut forecasts in the past 72 hours. The trade is no longer about Hormuz. It is about which forecaster capitulates last.

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Research

The 30% Discount Sitting in Plain Sight: Why Lakers and Celtics Just Re-Priced Every Public Sports Stock

Mark Walter just closed on the Lakers at a $10 billion valuation, the highest ever paid for a North American sports franchise. Sportico marks the Knicks plus the Rangers at $13.5 billion. MSG Sports trades at $9.6 billion. The 29% gap is now a research thesis, not a footnote.

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Research

The $570 Billion Footnote: Why AI's Real Story This Year Is in the Bond Market, Not the Earnings Call

Nvidia just raised $25 billion with $85 billion of orders. Morgan Stanley sees $570 billion of AI-related debt by year-end. The trade is not in the equities the bonds finance — it is in the spreads the bonds are setting.

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Research

Warsh's One Proposal: Why the FOMC Just Retired the Powell Playbook in 130 Words

John Grey — Macro & cross-asset desk The Federal Reserve held its target range at 3.50 to 3.75 percent for the fourth consecutive meeting on Wednesday. The unanimous 12-0 vote was the headline. It was also the least important thing that happened in Washington this week. The

Research

GSK's $10.6 Billion Nashville: Why the Nuvalent Multiple Just Reset the Patent-Cliff Math for Every Major Drugmaker

John Grey — Healthcare & longevity desk On the morning the markets were busy pricing a US-Iran ceasefire and a Federal Reserve hold, GSK’s new chief executive wrote the largest cheque of his tenure for a Cambridge, Massachusetts biotech that has yet to generate a single dollar of commercial

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Research

Apollo's Pickleball Verdict: Why the $225M Check Is a Real-Estate-and-Media Bet, Not a Sports Wager

SK Lee — Sports & consumer desk A few days before the Strait of Hormuz reopened and the oil curve collapsed, Apollo Global Management quietly closed the largest structured check ever written into the business of pickleball. The trade press treated it as a curiosity. The composition of the deal, the

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Research

The $10 Billion Verdict on AI's Bottleneck: Why KKR's Helix Is Not Another Big Check

John Ian Lau — Technology & AI infrastructure desk For three years, the dominant narrative in AI infrastructure has been chip scarcity. On Thursday, Henry Kravis’s firm quietly announced that the bottleneck has moved — and that the next phase of the buildout will not be financed by hyperscaler balance sheets

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Research

The Voice That Won't Be in the Room: Why Ueda's Absence Hands the BoJ's Microphone to Tokyo's Treasury

John Grey — Asia markets desk The Bank of Japan will almost certainly raise its policy rate to 1.00 percent at Tuesday's meeting, the highest setting it has held in roughly thirty years. That part of the price action is, for once, fully embedded in the market. What

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Research

The Sell-Side Is Five Points Light: Why Bank CFOs Just Out-Guided Consensus on Q2 Markets

Every major US bank CFO delivered Q2 guides 5 to 12 points above consensus at Morgan Stanley's conference. The mid-July prints will close the gap.

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Research

The Inventory Crater: Why Even a Signed Iran Deal Won't Reset Oil to Pre-War Levels

Trump announced a draft Iran deal Wednesday. Brent fell 4%. JPMorgan's Kaneva still models $100 Brent through year-end under that exact scenario.